Conservative Pulse

Well, this has certainly been an interesting primary season, and the next few weeks promise to keep things going!  Underdog Mike Huckabee came from out of the blue to win the Iowa Caucuses despite being massively outspent.  John McCain, who the media had declared dead 100 times during the summer, came back and won a surprise victory in New Hampshire.  On the ropes, Mormon millionaire Mitt Romney poured cash into his home state of Michigan and pulled off a do-or-die win in that state.

Now, the focus turns to South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Maine.  And then… SUPER TUESDAY!

What are the polls showing so far?  Well, on a national level John McCain has become the new front-runner, leading the pack by 5-10% in most surveys.  The individual state polls are a whole lot less certain.

The most important contest right now is South Carolina.  It may make or break Fred Thompson’s campaign and will probably come close to doing the same for Mike Huckabee.  Thompson will be out if he doesn’t get a win there, while Huckabee just needs a win to prove that Iowa wasn’t a fluke or the result of voters voting against Mitt Romney and not for Huckabee. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary shows that John McCain and Mike Huckabee are tied at 24%. In a race that has already seen four different candidates with the lead, much could still change in the coming days–7% of voters have yet to make up their mind, 10% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% might change their mind.

Mitt Romney attracts 18% support and Fred Thompson 16%. Those figures are little changed from the previous survey. Both Romney and Thompson have led in South Carolina at some point over the past several months. The latest survey was conducted the night after Mitt Romney’s victory in Michigan. Ron Paul attracts 5% support and Rudy Giuliani 3%.

The same day South Carolina votes, the less important Nevada caucuses are being held.  Expect Mitt Romney to capitalize on the fact that he’s the only one really campaigning out there and the state has a large Mormon population. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary, to be held January 29th. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of likely voters.  Rudy Giuliani desperately needs a win in Florida to remain relevant on Super Tuesday.

In an election season filled with surprises, New Jersey’s Republican Primary voters may be considering a surprise of their own. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of that February 5 contest shows Arizona Senator John McCain two points ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. 

John McCain has a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in California’s Republican Presidential Primary. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the race shows McCain earning 24% of the vote while Romney attracts 17%. More than ten points behind the leader are Mike Huckabee at 13%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Rudy Giuliani at 11%.

But as we’ve seen, these numbers can change radically by the day.  We won’t know anything for sure until the ballots are cast and counted.  There’s even a slim chance this fight could go all the way to the convention floor, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  Odds are we will know who both the Republican and Democratic nominees are on the morning of February 6th.