At the start of the weekend, a one-day Zogby survey suggested McCain has surged significantly and was gaining ground fast. But further Zogby polling is not panning out as well. Most polls now show Obama leading from 4% to 11% nationally and with an electoral edge of at least 50-100 votes.

But there are still signs of hope, two very notable ones coming today in polling from CNN and IBD. The TIPP/IBD poll, which claimed the title “most accurate” in the 2004 race, has Obama leading McCain by only 2%. That’s a lot closer and represents a several day tightening trend.

The second bright spot is a poll just reported on CNN that shows Obama leading in Pennsylvania by 7%. That’s down from a 13% lead just a couple of weeks ago. Pennsylvania is the McCain campaign’s Hail Mary play in this election.

If McCain, somehow, manages to win Ohio and Florida… AND an upset in Pennsylvania… he could still win the White House even if he loses Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, and some of these other tight states. It’s not likely. But it is possible.

Yesterday’s sampling for the 3-day Zogby tracking poll showed a single day lead of 48-47% for McCain. A result that is sending some shockwaves out… disrupting the script of the media’s 96 hour coronation of Barack Obama.

According to John Zogby: “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.”

“Obama’s lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama’s good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on.”

But it’s important to NEVER count out McCain. He is one of the worst frontrunners in recent political memory, but he’s also the best underdog since Harry Truman.

McCain’s real instincts and his “fight” don’t kick in until he’s in a bottom of the ninth inning situation. McCain thrives on this kind of stuff. He lives for the comeback.

That’s where we’re at now. Less than two weeks to go and many polls predicting an Obama landslide. The Democrats are outspending Republicans by gigantic margins. And while Congress is pretty much a lost cause, the Presidency is not. It’s the political equal of needing a game winning touchdown from 80 yards out and having only 27 seconds and one time-out remaining.

John McCain has the ball.

He doesn’t always win - but this is usually the time when he does his best work. He came from nowhere to trounce George W. Bush in New Hampshire back in 2000. After suffering a defeat in South Carolina, he came back to victory in Michigan and made it a race. But 2000 wasn’t to be his year.

So he waited and started out 2007 as the overwhelming frontrunner, only to see his campaign implode and his poll numbers sink below Ron Paul’s in some states. But when everyone in the media gave up and counted him for dead, McCain got to work.

And here we are one year later.

I’m not predicting a McCain victory by any means. But I am saying that it is foolishness to give up on him just because he’s a few points behind in some poll.

This race is far from over.

Blackwell and former Senator Rick Santorum both spoke at this final event of the summit…

Obama has leads in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Nevada by about 2-4%.  Both candidates are tied in Missouri, which has traditionally been a reliable red state in the last two elections.

McCain needs to make up this gap - and quickly.  All that Obama has to do until November 4 is play it safe and avoid making any significant mistakes, and he’s the next President of the United States.  McCain must switch gears and do something different in the next week or so, and he must do well in the next debate on October 15.  Another “draw” just isn’t going to cut it.  Unfortunately, the next debate focuses on domestic policy - and Obama is aptly situated to use the recent economic panic to his advantage.

McCain still has some options that he can explore, though.

• ACORN fraud - The non-profit heavily associated with Obama has apparently been hiring shifty volunteers who are registering vast numbers of imaginary clones in several states.  This incident won’t sit well with many who remember the rampant mistakes in 2000.
• Roll out a four-year plan for dealing with the current economic crisis and cleaning things up for future purposes, but without inviting government overregulation.  Denounce the two-year lowering of interest rates and CRA amendments made during the Clinton administration.  Advocate rolling back those changes and take other measures to make it easier for banks to refuse loans that they feel are too risky.
• Attack Obama’s association with William Ayers directly.  So far, this has gone on through lower-level people but hasn’t come up in a debate.  Obama may have a hard time giving a clear explanation as to why he hung around Ayers and Dorhn years after they had bombed government buildings.
• Take a hard line on the currently relevant issue of piracy off Somalia, and ask Obama how he would handle it.  Negotiate with the pirates?  Fly them around on Air Force One until they nod off to sleep?
• Get Bristol married to Levi at a key point on the calendar:

Bristol’s birthday is on the third Saturday in October. News of the wedding could be leaked the week before, but could really take hold from the 19th to the 25th with speculations over location, attendees, and so forth. The 27th or 28th might be the ideal day for the actual event - keeping the media talking clear through the last week in October, which is the biggest time for early voters and only a couple of days before November 4.

• Point out Obama’s dealings with other odd ducks, like communist Frank Marshall Davis, Rashid Khalidi, and the guy who might possibly be Barack’s version of David Addington, Khalid al-Mansour.
• Modify his position on Iraq.  Make the point that had he been President and had access to all of the relevant information that we now know, he would not have invaded.  The surge has been effective at making a bad situation work better and he would withdraw most forces from Iraq within his first term, but in a way that maintains stability.

McCain must change his campaign’s focus and start motivating the base - which as shown in recent hostile episodes of anti-Obama anger, has become fearful that their candidate is becoming too passive.

Of course Democrats and Obama staffers are rushing to pour water all over this. There’s no connection, no ties, nothing at all. Heck, if you listened to them you’d swear Obama had never even heard of the group. See Brad Woodhouse of the DNC on Fox News as a prime example…

SULLIVAN: Yes, but you’re hitting on the mortgage angle. What about Senator Obama’s relationship with the Woods Foundation and ACORN?

WOODHOUSE: Well, let me just say this — I mean, Senator Obama has never been an employee of ACORN, never done any training for ACORN. At one point in his career, he and a bunch of lawyers represented a bunch of groups including ACORN who had a lawsuit against Governor Edgar in Illinois and they wanted to enforce the Motor-Voter Law.

So, I mean — look, this is — there’s no relationship here.

Oh really? Is that so?

This is, of course, all very amusing. It’s getting hard to keep track of all the lowly characters whom Barack Obama claims to have “no relationship” with.

If an when this story really unfolds itself, I suspect we could see a major backlash against Obama. This kind of dirty, underhanded Chicago politics doesn’t sit well with most Americans. Now if only the McCain campaign would turn up the heat on this issue.

All week, supporters of the GOP ticket have yelled ugly accusations about Obama as McCain and running mate Gov. Sarah Palin proceeded down a path where Obama was painted as someone sinister.

“Treason!” “Terrorist!” “Kill him!” audience members yelled when McCain or Palin invoked Obama’s name.

Interestingly, concerns about how “old” and “likely to die” McCain is, or Palin’s pronouns and rural Alaskan upbringing have been taken seriously - even though they are also equally ridiculous.  Obama is not guilty of treason, McCain is not about to die, and Palin is not going to force us all to go moose hunting - although a moose hunt with Sarah Palin sounds like an awesome lot of fun.

The below video is not from a McCain sympathizer, but it does illustrate my point. Also, thanks to one our resident liberals Mark for posting this in an earlier comments section…

This crazy anti-Obama yelling does not help McCain at all, and could well be a serious problem in the last few weeks.  It may well turn off the few people who may still be undecided, and at this stage, Republicans need every available vote.  Even though it’s caused by an incredibly small minority  - 1 in 1,000 or less - that’s all it takes to crash a campaign.

Worse yet, it threatens to negatively charge a situation that has thankfully been very peaceful so far.  Both McCain and Obama have done an excellent job of keeping the focus away from the concept of race, an idea that seems to bizarrely inspire people to impassioned action.  Regardless of who wins, Election/Post-Election/Inauguration Day violence is something that we want to avoid. People need to not say stupid things in front of TV cameras, and the media needs to abandon their ridiculous paranoia that McCain is going to turn into a brontosaurus and blow away in the wind.

They’ve got a live feed going into Blogger’s Row, so I am able to actually write while watching each speaker. I’ve asked several folks in here if this is being filmed for C-SPAN or any other broadcast… but no one seems sure.

Once again, the music is top notch and gets the crowd fired up. An AFP board member is introduced with the theme to Jurassic Park. Creed’s “My Sacrifice” blares as Mayor Steve Lonegan from New Jersey makes his way to the stage. He exits to Bon Jovi’s “It’s My Life” and then Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believing” is used to transition into yet another very slick video.

Fred Barnes, the Executive Editor of the Weekly Standard, opens up his speech with the pronouncement that “the election is not over.” He continued to speak very highly of Sarah Palin. But, he cautioned, Americans must prepare for the worst. Liberal majorities in the House and Senate and a liberal Democratic President are a very real possibility.

Virginia’s Attorney General Bob McDonnell enters to the theme from the Rocky films. He delivered an energetic speech and then made his way into Bloggers Row to shake hands and work the room. Very nice of him to make the effort and it was clearly appreciated by the folks in here.

I’m still amazed by the soundtrack to this event. Black Eyed Peas “Let’s Get it Started” is typical, along with songs from Ac/DC, the Star Wars soundtrack, and several late 90’s pop-rock acts.

The wi-fi network in here seems to have been pushed to its breaking point once again. An entire post that I’d written was lost when I attempted to publish it just as the network crashed.

Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal was next to speak. He’s co-authored a book called “The End of Prosperity?” which he’s currently promoting. Apparently, part of that book tour took him to California to film a taping of HBO’s “Real Time” — where he was surrounded by a panel and audience of flaming liberals.

David Koch and Tim Phillips then listened at the podium as each state’s delegation chair stood to deliver a short status report of their chapter’s current activities. This reminds me a great deal of a roll call Presidential ballot from a political party convention. Once again, it makes me wonder what the eventual evolution of this group will look like. For right now, though, it seems pretty clear that most of the speakers and attendees are supporting John McCain. I’ve met a few folks who say they are voting for Barr, but usually with the added claim that they’re in a safe state or might change their mind if the election looks really close.

This is a conservative group. The mere mention of Barney Frank and Harry Reid have caused loud booing and hissing from the audience, while Nancy Pelosi’s name generated a wave of groans. The words “Barack Obama” cause laughter and eyerolling to sweep the room.

I’m pretty sure that there are no Democrats here.

A man with a pig hat on his head (the pig’s eyes blinked) just screamed that “pork is for eating, not for spending!” I guess every event like this needs a few colorful characters.

At the dinner last night we had a man who was shouting individual freedom slogans during the dinner’s speakers. I remarked to my friend seated next to me that only a Libertarian would heckle a quasi-Libertarian event.